[PEREZGONZALEZ Jose D [ed] (2011). Environmental collapse model. Journal of Knowledge Advancement & Integration (ISSN 1177-4576), 2011, pages 15-19.] [Printer friendly]
The environmental collapse model was published by Jared Diamond in 20051. The model deals with a structured set of mostly environmental variables that seem to account for the collapse of some past and present societies. The model, thus, proposes a chain of causation whereas environmental change has led to, is leading to, and may lead to social collapse. This said, the model does not presuppose that all social collapses are a necessary consequence of the proposed variables. As Diamond writes, "It would be absurd to claim that environmental damage must be a major factor in all collapses […]. It's obviously true that military or economic factors alone may suffice" (p.15).
The model is based on five main variables:
- Environmental damage, based on the following conditions:
- Ecological problems, such as:
- deforestation and habitat destruction
- soil problems
- water management problems
- over-hunting
- overfishing
- effects of introduced species
- human population growth
- increased per capita impact of people
- Human-caused climate change
- Build up of toxic chemicals
- Energy shortages
- Full use of Earth's photosynthetic capacity
- Ecological problems, such as:
- Climate change
- Hostile neighbors
- Friendly trade neighbors
- Response to environmental problems, based on the following conditions:
-
- Failure to anticipate a problem:
- because of no previous experience with such problem
- because of having forgotten a previous experience with such problem
- because of using solutions based on a false analogy with a similar problem
- Failure to perceive a problem:
- because the problem itself is imperceptible
- because organizational managers are distanced from where the problem occurs locally
- because of slow trends in how the problem progresses
- Failure to solve the problem:
- because of rational behavior (economic rationality, selfishness, and the "tragedy of the commons")
- because of irrational behavior (persistence in error, holding inappropriate values, the "it's someone else's problem" phenomenon, groupthink, and psychological denial)
- because of failure in solving the problem (beyond present capacities of solution, prohibitively costly to solve, or solutions coming too little too late)
- Failure to anticipate a problem:
-
Editor
Jose D PEREZGONZALEZ (2011). Massey University, Turitea Campus, Private Bag 11-222, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand. (
JDPerezgonzalez).
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