[<Normal page] [PEREZGONZALEZ Jose D [ed] (2011). Environmental collapse model. Journal of Knowledge Advancement & Integration (ISSN 1177-4576), 2011, pages 15-19.]
Theoretical frame
The environmental collapse model was published by Jared Diamond in 20051. The model deals with a structured set of mostly environmental variables that seem to account for the collapse of some past and present societies. The model, thus, proposes a chain of causation whereas environmental change has led to, is leading to, and may lead to social collapse. This said, the model does not presuppose that all social collapses are a necessary consequence of the proposed variables. As Diamond writes, "It would be absurd to claim that environmental damage must be a major factor in all collapses […]. It's obviously true that military or economic factors alone may suffice" (p.15).
The model is based on five main variables:
- Environmental damage, based on the following conditions:
- Ecological problems, such as:
- deforestation and habitat destruction
- soil problems
- water management problems
- over-hunting
- overfishing
- effects of introduced species
- human population growth
- increased per capita impact of people
- Human-caused climate change
- Build up of toxic chemicals
- Energy shortages
- Full use of Earth's photosynthetic capacity
- Ecological problems, such as:
- Climate change
- Hostile neighbors
- Friendly trade neighbors
- Response to environmental problems, based on the following conditions:
-
- Failure to anticipate a problem:
- because of no previous experience with such problem
- because of having forgotten a previous experience with such problem
- because of using solutions based on a false analogy with a similar problem
- Failure to perceive a problem:
- because the problem itself is imperceptible
- because organizational managers are distanced from where the problem occurs locally
- because of slow trends in how the problem progresses
- Failure to solve the problem:
- because of rational behavior (economic rationality, selfishness, and the "tragedy of the commons")
- because of irrational behavior (persistence in error, holding inappropriate values, the "it's someone else's problem" phenomenon, groupthink, and psychological denial)
- because of failure in solving the problem (beyond present capacities of solution, prohibitively costly to solve, or solutions coming too little too late)
- Failure to anticipate a problem:
-
Supporting evidence
Collapsed past societies
Case studies by Diamond (20051) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Easter Is. | Pitcairn Is. | Anasazi | Maya | Vinland | Norse | |
ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE | ||||||
~ Deforestation | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | |
~ Soil problems | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | |
~ Water problems | yes | yes | ||||
~ Over-hunting | yes | yes | yes | |||
~ Overfishing | yes | yes | ||||
~ Introduced species | yes | yes | yes | |||
~ Population growth | yes | yes | yes | |||
~ Per capita impact | ||||||
~ Human climate change | yes | |||||
~ Toxic chemicals | ||||||
~ Energy shortages | ||||||
~ Full photosynthetic use | ||||||
CLIMATE CHANGE | yes | yes | yes | |||
HOSTILE NEIGHBORS | yes | yes | yes | |||
TRADING PROBLEMS | yes | yes | yes | yes | ||
FAILED RESPONSE | ||||||
~ No experience | yes | yes | ||||
~ Forgotten experience | yes | yes | ||||
~ False analogy | ||||||
~ Imperceptible causes | yes | yes | yes | |||
~ Distant managers | ||||||
~ Slow trends | yes | yes | ||||
~ Selfish behavior | yes | yes | yes | |||
~ Irrational behavior | yes | yes | ||||
~ Failed solution | yes | yes | ||||
yes = contributory factor to the collapse of the society |
Successful past societies
Case studies by Diamond (20051) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tikopia | New Guinea | Japan | Iceland | Orkney | Shetland | Faeroe | |
ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE | |||||||
~ Deforestation | halted | reversed | reversed | yes | yes | ||
~ Soil problems | reversed | yes | yes | no | halted | ||
~ Water problems | reversed | yes | |||||
~ Over-hunting | yes | ||||||
~ Overfishing | halted | ||||||
~ Introduced species | halted | ||||||
~ Population growth | halted | halted | halted | ||||
~ Per capita impact | |||||||
~ Human climate change | |||||||
~ Toxic chemicals | |||||||
~ Energy shortages | |||||||
~ Full photosynthetic use | |||||||
CLIMATE CHANGE | |||||||
HOSTILE NEIGHBORS | |||||||
TRADING PROBLEMS | no | no | no | no | no | ||
FAILED RESPONSE | |||||||
~ No experience | |||||||
~ Forgotten experience | |||||||
~ False analogy | halted | ||||||
~ Imperceptible causes | halted | yes | |||||
~ Distant managers | no | no | |||||
~ Slow trends | no | ||||||
~ Selfish behavior | reversed | no | reversed | ||||
~ Irrational behavior | reversed | reversed | reversed | reversed | |||
~ Failed solution | reversed | reversed | |||||
yes = contributory factor to the collapse of the society; no = not a contributory factor, thus helping the society to survive; halted = contributory factor that the society managed to halt, thus helping it to survive; reversed = contributory factor that the society reversed or changed, thus helping it to survive |
Way forward
Predicting modern societies' collapses
According to Diamond, some modern societies have collapsed (e.g. Rwanda and Haiti), while others are on the verge of collapsing…or so would the model predict, as these societies are affecting the environment in a way leading towards such a collapse. Thus, the future of these societies (including any mitigating or reversing strategy they implement) should work as an empirical test to the model.
Case studies by Diamond (20051) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rwanda | Dominic. Rep. | Haiti | China | Australia | Montana | L.A. | |
ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE | |||||||
~ Deforestation | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes |
~ Soil problems | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes |
~ Water problems | yes | yes | yes | yes | |||
~ Over-hunting | yes | ||||||
~ Overfishing | yes | yes | yes | yes | |||
~ Introduced species | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | ||
~ Population growth | yes | yes | yes | halted | yes | yes | yes |
~ Per capita impact | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | ||
~ Human climate change | yes | yes | |||||
~ Toxic chemicals | yes | yes | yes | yes | |||
~ Energy shortages | |||||||
~ Full photosynthetic use | |||||||
CLIMATE CHANGE | yes | yes | yes | yes | |||
HOSTILE NEIGHBORS | no | no | |||||
TRADING PROBLEMS | no | ||||||
FAILED RESPONSE | |||||||
~ No experience | |||||||
~ Forgotten experience | |||||||
~ False analogy | yes | yes | |||||
~ Imperceptible causes | yes | ||||||
~ Distant managers | |||||||
~ Slow trends | |||||||
~ Selfish behavior | yes | yes | yes | reversed | yes | yes | |
~ Irrational behavior | yes | yes | reversed | yes | |||
~ Failed solution | yes | yes | |||||
yes = contributory factor to the collapse of the society; no = not a contributory factor, thus helping the society to survive; halted = contributory factor that the society managed to halt, thus helping it to survive; reversed = contributory factor that the society reversed or changed, thus helping it to survive |
Want to know more?
- BOURNE Joel K Jr (2008). Dirt poor. National Geographic, 2008, vol.214, no.3, pp.108-111. ISSN 0027-9358.
- Just a one page article (plus photographs) of Haiti's soils and societal woes. The article partially supports Diamond's predictions for Haiti.
- MANN Charles C (2008). Our good Earth. Can we save it? National Geographic, 2008, vol.214, no.3, pp.80-107. ISSN 0027-9358.
- Nice article on the quality (as fertility) of Earth's soils, which illustrates one of the variables of Diamond's model.
Editor
Jose D PEREZGONZALEZ (2011). Massey University, Turitea Campus, Private Bag 11-222, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand. (JDPerezgonzalez).
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