Theoretical frame

The environmental collapse model was published by Jared Diamond in 2005¹. The model deals with a structured set of mostly environmental variables that seem to account for the collapse of some past and present societies. The model, thus, proposes a chain of causation whereas environmental change has led to, is leading to, and may lead to social collapse. This said, the model does not presuppose that all social collapses are a necessary consequence of the proposed variables. As Diamond writes, "It would be absurd to claim that environmental damage must be a major factor in all collapses […]. It's obviously true that military or economic factors alone may suffice" (p.15).
The model is based on five main variables:

Environmental damage, based on the following conditions:
- Ecological problems, such as:
  - deforestation and habitat destruction
  - soil problems
  - water management problems
  - over-hunting
  - overfishing
  - effects of introduced species
  - human population growth
  - increased per capita impact of people
- Human-caused climate change
- Build up of toxic chemicals
- Energy shortages
- Full use of Earth's photosynthetic capacity
Climate change
Hostile neighbors
Friendly trade neighbors
Response to environmental problems, based on the following conditions:
- - Failure to anticipate a problem:
    - because of no previous experience with such problem
    - because of having forgotten a previous experience with such problem
    - because of using solutions based on a false analogy with a similar problem
  - Failure to perceive a problem:
    - because the problem itself is imperceptible
    - because organizational managers are distanced from where the problem occurs locally
    - because of slow trends in how the problem progresses
  - Failure to solve the problem:
    - because of rational behavior (economic rationality, selfishness, and the "tragedy of the commons")
    - because of irrational behavior (persistence in error, holding inappropriate values, the "it's someone else's problem" phenomenon, groupthink, and psychological denial)
    - because of failure in solving the problem (beyond present capacities of solution, prohibitively costly to solve, or solutions coming too little too late)

Supporting evidence

Collapsed past societies

Case studies by Diamond (2005¹)
	Easter Is.	Pitcairn Is.	Anasazi	Maya	Vinland	Norse
ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE
~ Deforestation	yes	yes	yes	yes		yes
~ Soil problems	yes	yes	yes	yes		yes
~ Water problems			yes	yes
~ Over-hunting	yes	yes	yes
~ Overfishing	yes	yes
~ Introduced species	yes	yes				yes
~ Population growth		yes	yes	yes
~ Per capita impact
~ Human climate change				yes
~ Toxic chemicals
~ Energy shortages
~ Full photosynthetic use
CLIMATE CHANGE			yes	yes		yes
HOSTILE NEIGHBORS				yes	yes	yes
TRADING PROBLEMS		yes	yes		yes	yes
FAILED RESPONSE
~ No experience				yes		yes
~ Forgotten experience			yes	yes
~ False analogy
~ Imperceptible causes		yes	yes			yes
~ Distant managers
~ Slow trends	yes		yes
~ Selfish behavior	yes			yes		yes
~ Irrational behavior	yes					yes
~ Failed solution		yes				yes
yes = contributory factor to the collapse of the society

Successful past societies

Case studies by Diamond (2005¹)
	Tikopia	New Guinea	Japan	Iceland	Orkney	Shetland	Faeroe
ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE
~ Deforestation	halted	reversed	reversed	yes			yes
~ Soil problems		reversed	yes	yes	no		halted
~ Water problems		reversed	yes
~ Over-hunting	yes
~ Overfishing	halted
~ Introduced species				halted
~ Population growth	halted	halted	halted
~ Per capita impact
~ Human climate change
~ Toxic chemicals
~ Energy shortages
~ Full photosynthetic use
CLIMATE CHANGE
HOSTILE NEIGHBORS
TRADING PROBLEMS			no	no	no	no	no
FAILED RESPONSE
~ No experience
~ Forgotten experience
~ False analogy				halted
~ Imperceptible causes		halted		yes
~ Distant managers	no	no
~ Slow trends			no
~ Selfish behavior	reversed	no	reversed
~ Irrational behavior	reversed			reversed		reversed	reversed
~ Failed solution	reversed	reversed
yes = contributory factor to the collapse of the society; no = not a contributory factor, thus helping the society to survive; halted = contributory factor that the society managed to halt, thus helping it to survive; reversed = contributory factor that the society reversed or changed, thus helping it to survive

Way forward

Predicting modern societies' collapses

According to Diamond, some modern societies have collapsed (e.g. Rwanda and Haiti), while others are on the verge of collapsing…or so would the model predict, as these societies are affecting the environment in a way leading towards such a collapse. Thus, the future of these societies (including any mitigating or reversing strategy they implement) should work as an empirical test to the model.

Case studies by Diamond (2005¹)
	Rwanda	Dominic. Rep.	Haiti	China	Australia	Montana	L.A.
ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE
~ Deforestation	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
~ Soil problems	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
~ Water problems				yes	yes	yes	yes
~ Over-hunting							yes
~ Overfishing		yes		yes	yes		yes
~ Introduced species		yes		yes	yes	yes	yes
~ Population growth	yes	yes	yes	halted	yes	yes	yes
~ Per capita impact		yes	yes	yes		yes	yes
~ Human climate change				yes	yes
~ Toxic chemicals		yes		yes		yes	yes
~ Energy shortages
~ Full photosynthetic use
CLIMATE CHANGE	yes			yes	yes	yes
HOSTILE NEIGHBORS		no	no
TRADING PROBLEMS		no
FAILED RESPONSE
~ No experience
~ Forgotten experience
~ False analogy					yes	yes
~ Imperceptible causes					yes
~ Distant managers
~ Slow trends
~ Selfish behavior	yes	yes	yes	reversed	yes	yes
~ Irrational behavior	yes		yes		reversed	yes
~ Failed solution					yes	yes
yes = contributory factor to the collapse of the society; no = not a contributory factor, thus helping the society to survive; halted = contributory factor that the society managed to halt, thus helping it to survive; reversed = contributory factor that the society reversed or changed, thus helping it to survive

References

1. DIAMOND Jared (2005). Collapse. How societies choose to fail or survive. Penguin Books (London, UK), 2006. ISBN 9780140279511.

Want to know more?

BOURNE Joel K Jr (2008). Dirt poor. National Geographic, 2008, vol.214, no.3, pp.108-111. ISSN 0027-9358.: Just a one page article (plus photographs) of Haiti's soils and societal woes. The article partially supports Diamond's predictions for Haiti.
MANN Charles C (2008). Our good Earth. Can we save it? National Geographic, 2008, vol.214, no.3, pp.80-107. ISSN 0027-9358.: Nice article on the quality (as fertility) of Earth's soils, which illustrates one of the variables of Diamond's model.